This post from Jay Bhattacharya replays a recurring theme for him relating to the purported success of the “Swedish strategy”, with limited non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to limit the spread of COVID. Here, he asserts that “not locking down” would have saved lives in the UK.
This assertion, this post, and this narrative warrant careful scrutiny.
How well did Sweden do in limiting the spread of COVID compared to peer countries?
What is Excess Mortality, how is it calculated, and what does it mean for interpreting this post?
What is Mortality Watch and why is the NIH Director using it?
Key Assertions
- Sweden was effective as its peer countries in controlling the spread of COVID.
- If we look at longer term excess mortality rather than COVID mortality, Sweden did better than peer countries.
Summary of Evidence (as discussed below)
- When compared to true peer countries such as Norway, Sweden experienced much higher rates of cumulative COVID mortality.
- Excess mortality requires an estimate of mortality had the pandemic not occurred. The answer to this question depends heavily on how those estimates are made and raises serious question about the appropriateness of its use in this context.
COVID Mortality
Consider this graph from the, Our World in Data website, maintained by Oxford University
| Country | Approximate Chinese Visitors (2019) | Population Density (people/km²) | Approximate COVID Mortality (deaths per million) |
| United Kingdom | 860,000 | 276 | 3,400 |
| Sweden | 215,000 | 25 | 2,680 |
| Norway | 155,000 | 15 | 1,200 |
| New Zealand | 407,000 | 19 | 1,160 |
| South Korea | 6,023,000 | 530 | 700 |
Consider COVID deaths in a few comparison countries in terms of their population density, which affects transmission rates and the rate of and the annual influx of Chines tourists, which should correlate with initial COVID cases. Sweden did not fare as poorly as the UK, but the UK has far more Chinese visitors and ten times the population density. Norway is closely matched to Sweden. It had a moderately fewer Chinese tourists and 37% lower population density, but Sweden had 167% higher COVID mortality. New Zealand and South Korea had far more travel from China and South Korea has much higher population density, but both had much lower COVID mortality.
BOTTOM LINE
Sweden fared far worse than Norway, the closest comparison in terms of climate, demographics, initial influx of cases, and population density. The data are consistent that the less stringent NPI’s in Sweden resulted in substantially higher COVID mortality.
Did Sweden fare better in terms of excess mortality?